In the popular imagination, the Great Wealth Transfer is the moment the generations who have been priced out of the housing market finally get their keys. But if you want to see the true face of this transfer, don’t look at Wall Street projections; look at Japan.
Realtor.com® has previously written about the ways in which a changing population could upend the traditional flow of wealth in the U.S.—from fewer people planning on leaving behind a financial legacy to more inheritances concentrated on fewer heirs, but the lessons from Japan are perhaps the most pertinent to the housing market itself.
Japan is currently 20 to 30 years ahead of the U.S. on the demographic curve, and its windfall has arrived with haunting side effects, including the rise of abandoned homes, and the departure of Japanese builders to other markets.
To look at Japan today is to see the risk that the American Dream of inheritance could evaporate, leaving heirs with a legacy of depleted bequests instead of financial freedom.
The rise of akiya
One of the most visible impacts of an aging society on the Japanese housing market is the rise of abandoned and vacant homes. These properties, known as akiya, have captured international headlines for their “too good to be true” price points—some selling for less than $10,000 USD—and their setting in idyllic, traditional landscapes.
But for the Japanese economy, they’re a structural crisis.
The most recent government estimate puts the number of akiya at roughly 8.5 million. The Noruma Research Institute, a Japanese think tank, puts it closer to 11 million and predicts that the number of akiya could exceed 30% of all homes in Japan by 2033.
By comparison, there are an estimated 15 million vacant homes in the U.S.—a country roughly 26 times the geographic size of Japan and almost three times the population.
The root of the problem is inheritance: An overwhelming majority (an estimated 59%) of akiya are inherited properties.
Charles Yuji Horioka, Ph.D., a Nakahara Prize-winning economist and Research Professor at Kobe University, explains that the transfer of these homes is being choked by a spatial mismatch.
“Jobs and also educational opportunities are much more and much better in big cities,” Horioka explains. “That has led to a sort of decline in land and housing prices in rural areas.”
For heirs who have permanently migrated to Tokyo or Osaka, inheriting a family home in a shrinking village is often what Horioka calls a “losing proposition.” The cost of travel, maintenance, and the exorbitant demolition charges frequently outweigh the property’s market value, leading heirs to simply walk away.
Is this next for the US?
On the surface, rural America seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Since 2019, demand for rural homes has outpaced urban centers, as remote work sparked a search for affordability. However, Realtor.com® senior economist Joel Berner warns that this affordability migration may be masking a looming supply shock.
“As the older population who live in these homes ages out, there will be a boost to supply that should help to counter the demand for rural homes (if it continues) and keep prices steady,” he says. “If demand for rural homes slows at the same time that this inventory surge occurs, we could see major price drops in rural ZIP codes.”
That could lead to a glut of homes in ZIP codes that younger generations have left behind. But, for now, it seems unlikely.
Currently, the U.S. is insulated by a severe housing shortage, which Realtor.com estimates grew to over 4 million homes in 2025.
“Ironically, this is now the biggest challenge in these rural communities, as prices have soared and many are no longer affordable to the people who live there,” says Berner.
But as the Great Wealth Transfer accelerates, the sheer volume of aging inventory—60% of U.S. homes were built before 1980, mirroring Japan—could eventually overwhelm that deficit.
Changing demographics means changing demand
Japan’s demographic shift is also being felt in the construction industry.
As single-person households rise and the number of couples with children decline, demand for new homes has cratered. In 1990, Japan saw 45 housing starts per 1,000 households; today, that number is under 20, according to the 2024 Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance.
Despite this slowdown, Japan still builds at twice the rate of the U.S. (which sees just 10 starts per 1,000 households). This clear gap in the American market—and the lack of growth at home—has sent Japanese giants on an American buying spree.
Today, Japanese companies like Sekisui House and Sumitomo Forestry own an estimated 33 U.S. homebuilders, including major brands like M.D.C. Holdings and Tri Pointe Homes. By early 2026, Japanese-backed firms are projected to control roughly 6% of the U.S. market share.
The hand that guides the legacy
If there is a final lesson from Japan, it’s that the flow of wealth is bent by the gravity of institutional policy.
As Horioka warns, “Institutions matter a lot, tax policies, or the civil law regarding division of the bequest… these institutional and policy institutions… have a big impact on people’s behavior.”
To his point, many families find it cheaper under Japanese tax policies to retain an akiya than to demolish them for redevelopment—making it even harder for these homes to be dealt with. In other instances, heirs simply don’t claim these properties at all.
The results have been so chaotic—leading to millions of “owner-unknown” properties—that in April 2024, Japan enacted mandatory inheritance registration laws. Heirs now face repeated fines if they fail to claim and register a property within three years.
America’s version of this lock-in effect can be seen in the stepped-up basis that allows heirs to avoid paying capital gains taxes on inherited homes.
By allowing heirs to reset the value of a home to its current market price, the U.S. tax code incentivizes seniors to hold onto homes until death to avoid capital gains. This keeps vital inventory off the market for young buyers, effectively freezing the housing ladder in place.
But perhaps the most significant leak in the wealth transfer is the rising cost of longevity. In Japan, the state covers up to 90% of care, allowing more wealth to stay in the family. But in the U.S., the lack of a universal safety net means an inheritance can quickly evaporate as equity is drained to pay for long-term care.
Use it or lose it
The coming great wealth transfer is a use-it-or-lose-it proposition. Without structural reforms—such as more accessible ways for seniors to monetize equity early or tax updates that encourage older homeowners to sell—the American legacy risks becoming leaky.
We have the benefit of Japan’s hindsight. The goal is to ensure that when the keys finally change hands, they aren’t opening the door to a liability, but to the financial freedom the next generation was promised.